The odds approach used in the present study differentiates it in a fundamental way from previous empirical attempts to provide an answer to the sub–2-h question.
After exploring the primary question, “When will the male sub–2-h threshold be broken?” I then pursue, “What are the limits of human performance for the male and female marathon?” “How far, in performance gap terms, is the current world record holder from the human performance limit?” and finally, “What is the equivalent of the ‘sub–2-h’ threshold for females, and when will this be achieved?” In addition, I demonstrate how the statistical framework can provide further insights into several related topics. In other words, the sub–2-h question is reconceptualized as one of odds: choose an odds of success level, for example, “1 in 10” (or “10% likely”), and an arrival time for the sub–2-h world record can be calculated. By fitting a robust nonlinear model to official world record performances and then calculating a spectrum of prediction intervals, I intentionally couple likelihood and timing as joint attributes of any statistical forecast. The key assumption used throughout is that the performance improvement generating mechanisms that have been operating in the recent epoch of world record progression (specifically, since 1950) can reasonably be assumed to continue over the prediction period. The aim of this study is to provide and analyze a statistical framework capable of jointly exploring the likelihood and timing of a runner going sub–2 h, and so complement the physiological perspective. But how likely? and when? Although physiological studies have identified the essential attributes of the ideal sub–2-h runner ( 2– 4), there has been scarce statistical treatment of the empirical progression of the male world record and much less the female world record. Prospects of a male athlete going sub–2 h in an IAAF even in the near future seem high given that the most recent world record reduced the mark by a full 1 min and 18 s, and the Nike “Breaking2” project produced a time just 25 s outside the sub–2-h barrier. The “sub–2-h” question-when will the first male break the 2-h marathon barrier in an International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) competition?-has attracted attention from the athletic and exercise physiology community for decades and can be traced back at least to A.V.
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